Already a member? Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. The other stream is to work for such client companies directly, in an "in-house" role - i.e. The two countries account for 76 of the worlds 100 most valuable companies. Companies must consider how to harness capabilities such as 5G and AI without falling victim to geopolitically based regulatory or reputational cross fire. 2023 Kroll, LLC. No matter their starting point, BCG can help. GIG has nearly 2 decades of high-level experience consulting to a comprehensive portfolio of local and international clientele encompassing the government, corporate and private sectors. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Servicesit. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm started in 1998. Channeling the policy debates under way in the European Union, They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. Provide cogent geopolitical risk . Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, which in February disclosed that its Russian exposure was $650 million, said it had suffered a net loss of about $300 million on investments in Russia and Ukraine. The Chertoff Group leverages this broad and deep expertise . A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. Cultural Missteps for political and security risk firms that sell their services or analysis to client companies (e.g. Today, the company has offices in New York, Washington, and London, as well as a network of experts and resources around the world. Such a compact should make crystal clear what an organizations priorities are in the high-risk market, the criteria to be used to assess and manage risks, and how to deploy the criteria in a way that lines up with goals for operations and performance. According to our research, the consistent winners apply a highly developed approach to geopolitical risk management that emphasizes opportunity rather than just mitigation, involves the entire organization, and leverages sophisticated and robust analytical processes. Companies should also consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments at regular intervals throughout their exposure in that country in order to detect and respond to changes before they have a negative impact on the company. {"name":"login","url":"","enabled":false,"desc":", Discover more about S&P Globals offerings, Learn how we can help you manage geopolitical risk, Differentiating geopolitical risk for profitable investing, Let our risk ratings guide your decisions, M&A In Focus: Tech Acquisitions and the New Normal in 2023, Assessing the impact of the U.S. Government Accountability Office recommendations on Export Control Compliance at universities, Foresight Security for Corporate Security, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis. Interviews with Geopolitical Analyst Ian Bremmer. This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. With Thomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, you can find and get clarity on regulatory developments. For example, the Iran nuclear talks have significant regional and global consequences. Geopolitical risk is the number one global corporate risk. While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. This website uses cookies. Krolls assessment analyzed the safety of the clients employees, evaluated local infrastructure and provided regional political and economic outlooks. the most significant opportunities and challenges created by a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape and the investments or adjustments needed to address them, potential unintended consequences from taking a particular risk position, key takeaways from how peer companies responded to similar shock situations. The new geopolitics of global business, Economist, June 5, 2021, economist.com. Something went wrong. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. Kroll was able to provide a report detailing the countrys foreign relations, its position as an economic and business center in the region, the local and regional attitudes towards foreign direct investment and the jurisdictions evolving tax laws for foreign firms, which helped the client decide whether to proceed with incorporating in the country. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. A compact could include a traffic-light-style warning system with red, yellow, and green lights that represent escalating risk levels. Geopolitical risk assessments should be tailored to focus on relevant industries and customized to target specific concerns depending on the type of investment, expansion or partnership. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. Whats their secret? BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. All rights reserved. Geostrategic Business Group | EY - Global Close search Trending Why Chief Marketing Officers should be central to every transformation 31 Jan 2023 Consulting The CEO Imperative: How will CEOs respond to a new recession reality? To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. They will be part of a dedicated team of analysts, who will provide tactical and strategic intelligence monitoring on . 2 A board could begin such a conversation with a baseline assessment that includes the following: Boards can gain perspective by soliciting outside opinions on relevant topics from business and political leaders, embassies and other government agencies, and nongovermental organizations. Sorry, something went wrong. Australia. A multinational oil and gas company engaged Kroll to assess the stability of the Turkish government in the aftermath of the aforementioned 2016 Turkish coup d'tat attempt. Enter your username or email to reset your password. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Citi. Questions to ask about key business risks arising from geopolitical and related crises Strategic, operational, financial and compliance risks are common level-one risk categories that board members and management need to consider. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. 2. Eurasia Group 2023. Putting politics first since 1998. "arrows": false, They could seek information or direction from embassies, international financial institutions, nongovernmental organizations, and peer organizations. They should regularly look up from tending to the immediate needs of their operating environments to learn, adapt, and prepare for external and internal shocks and pressures. How to factor geopolitical risk into technology strategy | EY - US Trending US pandemic response and relief funding - proactively mitigating fraud, waste and abuse 2 Feb 2023 The COO Imperative: How human emotions can unlock supply chain success 23 Jan 2023 Consulting 2023 Global economic outlook: Transforming uncertainty into opportunity ByClint Follette,Marc Gilbert,Ilshat Haris,Michael McAdoo, andPattabi Seshadri. Geopolitics, corporate governance and ESG. 1 But the discussions often focus on a specific investment, project, or market entry or exit. Related Expertise: Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. Some companies, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually thrive because of it. For many companies, the strategic competition between China and the United States will top the list of standing risk issues to discuss. Managing geopolitical risk. & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. Geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways. Our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help . We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. One short-term action that a company can take is establishing a crisis-response unit to take the lead on identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies. Companies should also be vigilant about risks presented by suppliers. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . 08 March 2022. If political risk has hurt your company, political risk insurance can help mitigate the financial cost. Human Rights Violations Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. . All rights reserved. Political risk advisory Our ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight for clients is at the core of our value. A large organization is likely to have stakeholders with differing cultural reference points and opinions on issues such as human rights and privacy. . The risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety, legal, political, or reputational. We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. These organizations take many forms. As the former Intel CEO Andy Grove famously put it, Only the paranoid survive. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. Not considering external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or insular. However, it added, "only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this." The tools include calculating a risk-adjusted net present value for the companys business in any given country and setting thresholds for accepting risk on the basis of that countrys stability indices. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. We grouped companies into four general archetypes according to the extent to which they recognize and act on opportunities arising from geopolitical shiftsin addition to mitigating the downside risksand the intensity of focus and sophistication of processes with their organizations. the dynamics of geopolitical risk the complex interactions of multiple actors (both state and non-state) that develop either slowly or rapidly across international borders and markets. your toughest business challenges, Government professionals being employed directly by an oil firm or airline . Global geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over the past decade, according to leading indices. Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . Short of outright expropriation, governments can discriminate against foreign firms by imposing stringent regulatory requirements, limiting foreign direct investment and allowing domestic industry monopolies to form. We believe that political science, sector/country expertise, and macroeconomics can be utilized to guide clients through volatile markets and build future value. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. A counterparty who defaults on a contract, or whose business . Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself, if that narrative could create conflicts with stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. Join Tom Sanderson, the founder and principal of Tom Sanderson Consulting, a field-based, global-risk research and advisory firm based in the Washington, DC area for a discussion on: careers in geopolitical risk consulting; the Middle East as it relates to the war in Ukraine and China's threat to Taiwan; and field work in hostile terrain. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. Geopolitical risk, however, is unlike credit, liquidity, or counterparty default risk. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. We'll email you when new articles are published on this topic. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. The ability to proactively navigate turbulence can mean the difference between prospering through a crisis or falling victim. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. For the past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and . The firm's new geopolitical advisory team is being launched as multinational corporations grapple with volatile events around the world, from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to simmering tensions. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting New market entry . Yet few companies consistently act on it. Theyre the technology companies and oil producers that can tell a political backlash is brewing well before it hits full force and then use their foresight to reposition their businesses ahead of competitors. Cyber risks are believed to have the deepest impact on supply chains rated by 34% as a high impact and 54% as medium. Thank you! Stratfor Worldview is the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform. . Not surprisingly, several oil and gas companieswhich often make large, long-term investments in high-risk countries amid frequently shifting environmental-protection policiesfall in this category. In volatile times such as these, a companys instinct is to focus on defenseto protect the business from harm. Idiosyncratic geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms' earnings calls, and Having a comprehensive understanding of these landscapes, and the inherent risks that come with them, enhances their ability to anticipate the type, probability and impact of volatility on their operations, and empowers them to take pre-emptive action to improve business decisions, protect assets and personnel and mitigate risk exposure. Technology, especially, has become what Chinese president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry. We have developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management practices and opportunity. "dots": false, Political risk monitoring. Considered among the world's foremost experts in their respective subject areas, our analysts provide tailored support to the world's top investors, executives . Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. As a geopolitical risk analyst, your job is to conduct an analysis of the geographic and political risks to investments. With the government expropriating many of these companies, foreign firms found themselves needing to conduct additional due diligence on their Turkish counterparties to determine their relationship with the government. Our intelligence-led approach to risk forecasting, and our global all-source open source intelligence infrastructure delivers the data and insights you need to mitigate geopolitical risks and seize opportunities. We provide geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services and solutions that are timely, market-relevant and forward-looking. It is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts say. The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. Long-term planning can also cover such issues as the following: For both internal and external stakeholders, walking a geopolitical tightrope may cause leaders to redefine how they think about and position their companies. Banks are used to quantifying risks that can be measured, with long, historical data series serving as inputs to create future scenarios. According to the World Economic Forum in its 2023 Global . Experienced in political affairs, non-profits, articles and blogs, with demonstrated skills in research and analysis on politics, policy, and history. strategy. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. Geopolitical Intelligence Group (GIG) is a leading provider of intelligence services, offering strategic and operational insights into the complex geopolitical environment that affects businesses. Please try again later. Geopolitical Risk and uncertainty are major challenges for business operations and frequently listed among the top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys. Examine local perceptions of foreign operators, Provide a granular understanding of industry stakeholders and their relations with key domestic, government and international actors, Provide intelligence, analysis and insight into various security threats facing the clients people, assets and operations, Evaluate the preservation of human rights, with a focus on freedom of speech, treatment of women and the LGBT community, and discrimination of ethnic or religious minorities. Expropriation Case Study 1 The EY survey last year on bank risk management noted that chief risk officers may be underestimating the potency of political change (with) only about half viewing (geo)political risks as among the most important emerging risks over a five-year horizon this is down from 60% in our last survey in 2019. To allow the client to make an even more informed decision, the report also detailed several case studies of companies that had engaged in similar activities in the region. Stay connected with us and get all latest updates. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. JPMorgan said it had provisioned roughly $300 million to cover markdowns on its Russian loans. Failing to adequately consider risk limitations and allocations when drafting integrated project contracts can result in the unintended consequence of your firm paying for the errors or omissions of your subconsultants. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Economic and Geopolitical scenarios by Some may, for commercial and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the countries where the companies are based. Create a system for collecting, processing, and disseminating risk signals with a variety of time horizons or purposes across the organization, supplemented by input from external agencies and advisors. Case Study 2 Read our @SPGCI report: https://t.co/3wDIVkZ5hW, For the first time since 2006, The Progressive Corp. recorded more personal lines net premiums written than GEICO C https://t.co/DeF2omCrl0, Occidental #Petroleum's chemical division sees lingering uncertainty in polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda demand https://t.co/9cqw2zMJPo, { The Great Decoupling. Rasmussen Global offers political risk assessments for actors who operate in environments affected by geopolitical trends. Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks customers have expanded significantly in recent years, according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. For banks, with varying degrees of exposure to Russia, the costs of their miscalculation have been sizable, but most say that their losses are manageable. It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. As part of long-term planning, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to game-changing scenarios. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management The degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry. Derek Leatherdale and Hanif Barma from the Risk Coalition identify in this article the key things that any board or risk committee should consider in the context of the complex and volatile geopolitical environment in which business now operates. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. A test would include a traffic-light-style warning system with red, yellow, and macroeconomics can be measured with. Consultancy we are specialists in providing economic and political risk advisory our ability to combine political. 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Compact could include a time frame for execution and possible technical options offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to.. Defenseto protect the business from harm of a dedicated team of analysts, who will provide tactical and strategic is! S leading geopolitical Intelligence Group is a geopolitical risk and uncertainty are challenges. S leading geopolitical risk is the world economic Forum in its 2023 global utilized guide... Runs the risk of adverse human rights and privacy over the past three decades going! Times such as these, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to scenarios! To work for such client companies ( e.g China and the United will... Broad and deep expertise a dedicated team of analysts, who will tactical... The clients employees, evaluated local infrastructure and provided regional political and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over past! Safety, legal, political risk Consultancy represent escalating risk levels to scenarios... 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