At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy., Wood also said even if home prices dropped 10%, they wouldnt set off a wave of foreclosures, unlike what happened in 2008, which just pulled prices down. If youre looking to buy or sell real estate in Utah, you want to ensure youre working with a real estate agent who can help you navigate the rapidly changing conditions of the local housing markets. Theyre both confident Utahs job market is strong enough to avoid sweeping foreclosures and that housing demand will continue due to the states rapid growth and pervasive home shortage. Utah hosted the 2002 Winter games, and Utah is looking to once again host these games once again. We also observe a lengthening of the time spent on the market and a decrease in both new listings and sales, which points towards a general slowing down of the Utah housing market. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022, Preston Hicks Real Estate Group - JMG Utah, What does exclusive right to sell mean? According to him, about half a million Californians browsed the website UtahRealEstate.com in search of property to buy. Here are the latest figures, The Wests housing crunch began over a decade ago. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. Real estate investors number by the thousands in the US. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. Sellers could no longer do whatever they wanted, Perry said, and suddenly buyers had more options at least those who could still afford to buy. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Home prices skyrocket amid early pandemic months due to bidding wars and a shortage of active listings. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? The ongoing upward movement of median home prices is caused by buyer competition and great urgency to acquire property ahead of rising interest rates. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. Instead, he was actually looking at a mortgage payment of up to $4,200 a month, depending on the days rate. We went through a real roller coaster ride the past couple of years mainly because of the pandemic. Love hiking, biking, or camping? Historically, brief and prolonged price declines in Utah went hand in hand with joblessness and recessions, both of which dont seem likely in the next two to three years. But even though discounts have been swift, Utahs home prices are still slightly up year over year. I just felt totally iced out, Branca said. Utah Housing Market Forecast 2022: The Complete Guide, Step-by-Step tips on using real estate analytics, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Midway, Top Investment Properties for Sale in North Ogden, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Ogden, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Orem, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Payson, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Provo, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Salt Lake City, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Sandy, Top Investment Properties for Sale in Santa Clara, Top Investment Properties for Sale in St. George, Orlando Real Estate: Top 10 Neighborhoods to Invest In, How to Find Investment Property in the Los Angeles Real Estate Market 2018, Tampa: Hot Weather, Hot Real Estate for 2017, Hawaii Real Estate: Most Affordable Places for Traditional and Airbnb Investments 2018. So its really tough to say, but I think its going to be minimal negative, or negative positive, Yun said. Utah has had quite a long history of rapid acceleration where house prices are concerned. When he first started looking in November 2021 and into early 2022, Salt Lake Countys median single-family home price had hit $580,000, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. Moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 10% or a 15% to 20% decline if a recession hits. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. The median sale price for a house in West Valley City was $436,500 in September 2022, representing a 2.9% increase in year-over-year comparisons. Average home value: $562,693. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. He expects buyers and sellers will step back and wait for the dust to settle, many of them locked in at low, 3% mortgage rates that helped send the nations housing market into a frenzy in 2020 and 2021. The jarring pace of Utah's housing market and its impact on Utahns "is why we think these investments are so important," Cox said. This data does not reflect actual moves. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. Although mortgage rates are expected to rise, the increase will be modest. Sign up now for a free 7-day trial and get 15% off on your subscription. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Therefore, the Utah housing market is to be expected to slow down. In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics. Joining Good Morning Utah to share what to expect for Utah's housing market for 2022 is Ryan Kirkham with Summit Sotheby's and Utah realestate.com. Major Utah cities covered in this report: These Utah real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. Will it pop or deflate?, A U.S. housing bubble is brewing. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Wood interjected, saying hes got to defend the Fed. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. NerdWallet reports that 2022 will see a low end of 3,4% according to Fannie Mae and will reach 4% by the end of the year as predicted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. By April, mortgage rates had begun shooting up. The past 5 years of Utahs housing market have seen an upward trend in housing prices. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. On average, homes in Cache County sell after 57 days on the market compared to 12 days last year. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. Heres why, Why are house prices so high? It seemed like the housing market was running away from buyers, who struggled to get offers accepted due to shockingly low inventory levels. The competition has been made even tougher since the pandemic started, with people from California and Colorado making their exodus to the Beehive State in search of more affordable housing along with a good educational system and a lower cost of living. In many respects it will be an uphill journey given. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. However, they expect the market to enter a correction that will persist into 2023 thanks to the Federal Reserves aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. Utah Housing Market Overview What is the housing market like right now? San Francisco was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to leave, followed by Los Angeles, New York, Washington and Chicago. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. In addition, inflation and the looming specter of a recession are also taking a toll on Utah residents buying power. However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. Hang in there. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. I dont think were going to get a recession now, in Utah., Eskic, smiling, said he and Wood should make a bet on stage. Joseph Branca, left, makes a drink while his partner Scotty Fletcher makes dinner at their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. Right now, its close to 5. So I hope the industry is close to right-sized and things can get better from here, Kelman said. Such a decline is extremely unlikely in Utah in 2023 and 2024, Wood wrote. While they both agree the market is in the midst of a price correction after two years of runaway demand amid the pandemic housing frenzy, they have differing outlooks for just how deep that price correction will run next year. In his report for Utah, Wood wrote its very unlikely that the recent price run-up represents a housing bubble, though he added, We dont know if a bubble exists until after it bursts. He cited Alan Greenspan, an economist and past chairman of the Federal Reserve, who defined a housing bubble as a prolonged period of housing price declines. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. Windermere Living With uncertainty in the economy, predictions for Utahs housing market vary greatly. Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year., The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market andwhether homes are becoming more or less affordable. The Ha read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Renters have seen a steady, heady increase in rents over the past year, making their window for buying even more narrow. Browse through the largest marketplace of Real Estate professionals, We have an in-house team that will guide you through the process. Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? Winter sports are a highlight in Utah. Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County. As the demand for housing decreases as buyers find themselves priced out of the market by the increasing cost of borrowing money or postpone their homebuying plans to preserve their buying power, we can expect Utah housing prices to stabilize or diminish. The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! Get your free online home valuation in only 2 minutes! Utah benefits from a strong economy, and, despite Utah housing prices being higher than the national average, there is still more demand for houses than available inventory. However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. Median listing prices were 3.6% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that higher financing costs may have created a price ceiling. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. Affirming this projection, Wood asserts . Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. South Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report, North Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. In its December 2022 monthly report, Realtor.com said its monthly housing data showed a housing market thats continuing to cool, with the number of homes for sale up by 54.7% compared to the same time last year. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. It boasts some of the best snow on planet earth! So hire an experienced top-producing agent to help you price, market, and negotiate the best deal possible. It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. 2023 will be tough for sales. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200.. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. But when mortgage rates ticked up, he said it quickly became apparent that he wasnt going to be able to buy a home with, say, a $1,600 monthly mortgage payment. The main concern is there are just not enough listed properties to go around for 500,000. Still seemed achievable. The pandemic housing frenzy was still very much alive fueled by low, 3% interest rates, short housing supply, and fear of missing out driving both sellers and buyers to the market. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. The West was ground zero for the pandemic housing frenzy and has also been one of the first areas to see home listing prices getting slashed as the market corrects. The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. Yes! The time to purchase your primary residence is today and has almost always been today. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. The median sale price was up 5.6% in September 2022 Y-O-Y, but the number of homes sold dropped 26.7%. Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? The impact of the correction on Utahs real estate market should be softened by its robust economy and limited home inventory. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: As in many other places across the country, Utah home prices have increased faster than usual in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. The Utah housing market is following many of the same patterns observed nationwide. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. Over the next 12 to 18 months, Eskic said he expects homebuilders to offer big discounts. Not necessarily dramatic price drops, but more buyer incentives and rate buydowns, perhaps offers to finish basements. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. Prices, though theyre on a downward trajectory, are still up year over year by single-digit percentages at least for now. In addition, Utahs median listing price is 36% more than homes across the United States. 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